Betting on the favorite is one of the most common strategies in sports betting. The logic is simple: the stronger team or player is more likely to win. However, despite the higher probability of success, many bettors still lose money in the long run. The key to consistently winning lies in understanding how to bet on favorites strategically rather than blindly placing bets based on emotions or reputation.
In this guide, wintips will break down the best strategies to maximize your profits when betting on favorites and help you avoid common mistakes that lead to losses.
Understanding betting on the favorite
In sports betting, the "favorite" refers to the team or player expected to win, as indicated by bookmakers. This is determined by factors such as team strength, form, head-to-head history, and betting market trends. Favorites have lower odds because they are perceived as more likely to win, which means lower payouts for winning bets.
While betting on favorites is generally considered a safer approach, it doesn't guarantee profits unless executed correctly. Not all favorites win, and betting without a strategy can lead to financial losses over time.
Best strategies for betting on thefavorite
Here are the best strategies for betting on the favorite, helping you maximize profits and minimize risks. From analyzing odds and managing your bankroll to identifying the right timing for your bets, these tips will guide you in making smarter wagering decisions.
1. Be selective with your bets
Not all favorites are worth betting on. Avoid blindly wagering on every strong team just because they are favorites. Instead, focus on matches where the odds offer good value and the favorite has a clear advantage based on form, squad strength, and motivation.
2. Use handicap betting for better value
Traditional "match winner" bets on favorites often yield low returns because the odds are typically low due to the high probability of the favorite winning. This makes it less attractive for bettors looking for substantial profits.
A better approach is Asian Handicap or European Handicap betting, where you can back a favorite to win by a certain margin. This type of betting adds a virtual advantage or disadvantage to the teams, leveling the playing field and offering more competitive odds. For example, if a strong team is expected to dominate a weaker opponent, you can bet on them to win by at least two goals (-1.5 handicap). This increases potential returns compared to a simple match-winner bet.
3. Consider live betting
Instead of placing a bet before the match starts, wait and analyze the game live. If the favorite concedes early or struggles initially, bookmakers may adjust the odds, providing better value for a bet on them to make a comeback. This approach requires patience and quick decision-making but can offer higher returns compared to pre-match odds.
4. Manage your bankroll wisely
A proper bankroll management strategy is crucial for long-term success. Avoid putting all your money on a single bet, no matter how "safe" it seems. Using strategies like flat betting (consistent stake per bet) or the Kelly Criterion (bet sizing based on edge and probability) helps minimize losses and maximize profits over time.
5. Analyze Stats, Form, and Situational Factors
Winning consistently requires research. Before placing a bet, check:
- Recent form: How well has the favorite been performing in their last 5-10 games?
- Head-to-head records: Does the favorite have a good track record against this opponent?
- Injury and suspension reports: Key players missing can weaken a favorite’s chances.
- Match motivation: Is the team playing for an important goal, or are they already qualified and might rotate players?
- Home vs. Away performance: Some teams perform significantly better at home than away.
By considering these factors, you can increase the accuracy of your bets and avoid overvalued favorites.
Common mistakes to avoid
- Betting blindly on popular teams: Just because a team like Real Madrid or Manchester City is a favorite doesn’t mean they will always win. Always analyze the match specifics.
- Chasing losses: If you lose a bet, avoid immediately placing a bigger bet to recover losses. This leads to reckless betting.
- Ignoring odds value: Sometimes, the odds on a favorite are too low to justify the risk. If a bet doesn’t offer value, it’s better to skip it.
- Overbetting: Betting too frequently on favorites can drain your bankroll. Selective and strategic betting is more effective.
Pros & Cons of Betting on the favorite
Advantages:
- Higher probability of winning: Since favorites are expected to win, the chances of success are statistically higher.
- More predictable results: Favorites often have better players, tactics, and consistency, making outcomes easier to analyze.
- Easier to research: More data and analysis are available on top teams, allowing for informed decision-making.
Disadvantages:
- Lower odds: Since favorites are more likely to win, the payouts are lower, requiring larger stakes for decent profits.
- Unexpected upsets: No team is invincible. Even the best teams lose due to injuries, fatigue, or underestimated opponents.
- Overvalued odds: Bookmakers often adjust odds to reflect public betting behavior, which can reduce the value of betting on favorites.
Conclusion
Betting on the favorite can be a profitable long-term strategy if done correctly. The key is to be selective, seek value in the odds, use handicap and live betting where applicable, and manage your bankroll effectively. Avoid common mistakes, conduct thorough research, and focus on strategic betting rather than emotional decisions.
By following these best strategies, you can improve your betting approach and increase your chances of consistent success. Happy betting, and always gamble responsibly!
Read more: What is sure bet? How to profit from Risk-Free bets
